Stationarity on the Run: The New Normal for Manitoba’s Climate

The concept of ‘normal’ in climatology defines the range of conditions expected in the near future, based upon the recent past, with the assumption that the recent past is a reasonable approximation of the near future. Thanks to climate change, this assumption of ‘stationarity’ in the climate is no longer valid. One of the most important consequences of non-stationarity in the climate system is that the probability of extreme events will change. Dr. Blair will discuss the evidence for non-stationarity in Manitoba’s rapidly changing climate, and will review the implications of continuing change in the coming decades on the nature and impacts of extreme weather.